Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b6…e854 crypto 1075 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$238 (-3%) realized −$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%473W / 602L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$1,776
14 days−$1,410
30 days−$1,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$306
sports 13% −$178
other 2% +$82
politics 0% −$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -41.7% -47.2% 25% 24% -51.6%
≤30d 302 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 31% -30.5%
≤90d 1074 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 44% -13.9%
all 1075 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 44% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 44% -13.8%
10% -26.6% 43% -22.1%
15% -33.7% 42% -29.6%
20% -40.2% 40% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses473 / 602
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1075 / 1075
History coverage90d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1075 Trades
no open positions (425 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$10 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$28 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$73 +4752%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 +$56 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $44 −$13 -31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$45 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$26 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 7h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $15 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $43 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 25¢ $8 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $18 21h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $71 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1986 history records