Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe2b4…3c5a
other · 539 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$812 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$874 · open −$223
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$23,611
Realized−$874
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses168 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions113
Markets (closed)426 / 539
Avg bet$136
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 113 History 426 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$43
14 days−$1,803
30 days−$1,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $9,164 $9,516 +$353 (+4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $4,771 $4,853 +$82 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $2,408 $2,425 +$17 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $961 $942 −$18 (-2%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $887 $873 −$15 (-2%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 68¢ 50¢ $637 $467 −$170 (-27%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $432 $438 +$7 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $390 $355 −$35 (-9%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 75¢ 86¢ $218 $251 +$33 (+15%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 95¢ 91¢ $245 $236 −$10 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $231 $235 +$4 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $239 $231 −$7 (-3%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $187 $182 −$6 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December? No 84¢ 79¢ $181 $170 −$11 (-6%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 92¢ 90¢ $168 $163 −$4 (-3%)
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 68¢ 73¢ $113 $122 +$8 (+7%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 87¢ 86¢ $112 $110 −$2 (-2%)
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 91¢ 91¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 50¢ $42 $85 +$43 (+102%)
Will Désiré Doué win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 82¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+9%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+6%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 93¢ 92¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 12 $0 $0 -54%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$13 -68%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $1 +$1 +42%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $2 $0 -24%
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 11 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $105 −$8 -7%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30? Jun 11 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $78 −$4 -5%
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $1 $0 -40%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 10 $0 $0 -23%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 09 $140 +$3 +2%
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 +$17 +550%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $98 +$18 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 06 $386 +$48 +12%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 06 $175 +$38 +22%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $164 −$114 -70%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $3,475 −$3,475 -100%
Will Dua Lipa and Callum Turner get married by December 31? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $91 +$10 +12%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $284 +$129 +45%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $488 +$32 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +17%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,413 +$39 +3%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 03 $19 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 02 $44 +$4 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 01 $411 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 01 $388 −$20 -5%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 01 $158 +$21 +13%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 37% +$586
other 36% +$561
sports 10% +$2,176
politics 8% −$3,486
finance 4% +$238
crypto 3% −$996
world 1% −$157
economics 0% −$19
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $5 10m
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $24 11m
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $71 14m
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $43 15m
Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $5 1h
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 4¢ $2 1h
James Norton announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $50 2h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $6 2h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 2h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 57¢ $12 3h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 56¢ $11 3h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $53 3h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 13¢ $2 4h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 96¢ $126 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.8% -14.8% 34% 17% -7.0%
≤30d 115 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 21% -13.9%
≤90d 159 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 18% -14.0%
all 426 -9.2% -17.8% 39% 15% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 15% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 9% -22.9%
15% -32.9% 6% -30.4%
20% -39.4% 5% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,610.56 · official $23,613.46 (match) · 3500 history records