Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E2 0xe2b2…4def weather 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$122 (-0%) realized −$118 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%438W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day61.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$96
14 days−$185
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$24
other 23% +$41
culture 2% +$9
sports 1% −$70
politics 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.9% -10.3% 92% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 189 -0.6% -10.1% 96% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 455 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -9.6%
all 455 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$37 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses438 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)455 / 456
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day61.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 96¢ $283 $278 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $83 −$11 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $106 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $277 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $278 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $251 −$159 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $207 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $420 +$6 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $417 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $414 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $279 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $171 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $237 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $169 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $212 +$18 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $119 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $346 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $381 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $243 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $378 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 3? Jun 09 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 4? Jun 09 $471 +$9 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $356 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $352 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $348 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 8? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $175 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $35 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $37 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $69 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $46 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $226 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $20 42h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $20 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $15 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 43h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $24 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $13 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.30 · official $278.16 (match) · 3500 history records