Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe2b1…4ec0 crypto 1332 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,258 (-34%) realized −$3,258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%711W / 621L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$724
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 +3.6% -6.3% 56% 56% -3.5%
≤30d 728 -3.0% -12.2% 52% 52% -12.2%
≤90d 1332 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 53% -16.3%
all 1332 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 53% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 53% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 51% -24.3%
15% -30.8% 48% -31.7%
20% -37.6% 40% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses711 / 621
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1332 / 1332
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1332 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$9 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$22 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records