Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2af…c477 weather 1201 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$546 (+0%) realized +$543 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1152W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day63.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$747
sports 1% +$15
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -4.2% -13.3% 95% 1% -13.2%
≤30d 929 -1.0% -10.4% 98% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 1175 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -10.2%
all 1175 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 1% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$192 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$7,949
Realized+$543
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1152 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1175 / 1201
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day63.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 1175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $399 $401 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $285 $289 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $285 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $285 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $286 $287 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $286 $287 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $287 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $285 $286 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $286 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $286 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $284 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $285 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $285 $285 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $286 $285 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $285 $285 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $286 $285 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $285 $285 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $285 $284 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? No 99¢ 94¢ $284 $267 −$17 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $253 $254 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $160 $160 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $154 $155 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? Jun 16 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4? Jun 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 1? Jun 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8? Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 30? Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 1? Jun 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on May 1? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 28? Jun 16 $279 −$279 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 27 Jun 16 $226 −$226 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4? Jun 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 29? Jun 16 $244 −$244 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $285 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 15? Jun 16 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $58 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $285 +$1 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $286 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $393 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? Jun 15 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? Jun 15 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 15 $551 +$2 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $392 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $334 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $193 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $286 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $375 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $114 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $285 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $286 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 99¢ $154 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $285 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $143 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $131 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $110 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $44 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $106 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $129 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $286 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $286 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $286 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $76 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $143 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $105 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $174 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $105 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $112 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $108 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $99 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $186 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,948.71 · official $7,948.71 (match) · 3500 history records