Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2ae…d112 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$7
sports 23% +$1
crypto 16% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 13 +4.2% -5.7% 92% 15% -8.6%
≤90d 13 +4.2% -5.7% 92% 15% -8.6%
all 13 +4.2% -5.7% 92% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 15% -8.6%
10% -14.7% 8% -17.4%
15% -23.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -30.5% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×51.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×623.21 per $1 lost it wins $623.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage12d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $158 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $154 +$4 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $153 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$1 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 $0 +3%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 99¢ $160 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 98¢ $158 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $158 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $154 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $54 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $143 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $11 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 10d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records