Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E2 0xe2ac…aa7a other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,373 (-49%) realized −$2,248 · open −$125
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$184
14 days−$2,378
30 days−$2,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$2,737
other 33% +$238
politics 2% +$122
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.4% -3.7% 76% 76% +8.1%
≤30d 25 +12.6% +1.9% 76% 76% -55.6%
≤90d 25 +12.6% +1.9% 76% 76% -55.6%
all 25 +12.6% +1.9% 76% 76% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 76% -55.6%
10% -7.9% 52% -59.8%
15% -16.8% 48% -63.7%
20% -24.9% 40% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$502 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$2,248
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage100d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 73¢ 92¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $160 $22 −$138 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$91 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,777 −$2,777 -100%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 15 $111 +$21 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$178 +89%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 03 $100 +$122 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 8d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $160 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2,233 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $144 12d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 94¢ $133 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $400 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.78 · official $284.78 (match) · 51 history records