Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2a7…3a99 sports 230 markets active 11h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$410 (-3%) realized −$399 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%74W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,117
7 days+$989
14 days+$345
30 days−$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,021
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 40% +11.7%
≤30d 128 -21.8% -29.3% 34% 33% -12.6%
≤90d 229 -11.3% -19.8% 32% 31% -16.1%
all 229 -11.3% -19.8% 32% 31% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 31% -16.1%
10% -27.4% 31% -24.1%
15% -34.5% 30% -31.5%
20% -40.9% 29% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$47 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses74 / 155
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage52d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $47 $37 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $49 +$64 +129%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$38 +74%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$8 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$113 +228%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $475 −$32 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,721 +$723 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $978 +$744 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $196 −$193 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $123 −$122 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $38 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $21 +$13 +63%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$15 +258%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $25 +$29 +114%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $46 −$25 -54%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 +$41 +134%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $98 −$50 -51%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$41 +81%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $46 +$3 +8%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $49 +$81 +167%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$4 -8%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $50 +$104 +210%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $50 +$49 +99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $76 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $26 10h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $88 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 56¢ $51 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $10 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 28¢ $51 22h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 30¢ $51 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $51 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $163 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $50 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $49 31h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 27¢ $51 35h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Cloud9 37¢ $443 36h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 38¢ $475 36h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $1,721 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1,721 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $978 45h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $196 45h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $123 46h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $51 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 24¢ $24 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $48 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $25 3d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 99¢ $35 4d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $21 4d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 99¢ $21 4d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 45¢ $25 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 58¢ $51 5d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) BUY Legacy 46¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.54 · official $36.54 (match) · 463 history records