Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2a6…3015 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-18%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$33
world 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -26.8%
≤30d 8 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -26.8%
≤90d 8 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -26.8%
all 8 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 50% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 50% -33.8%
15% -38.9% 38% -40.2%
20% -44.9% 25% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 61¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.83 · official $18.83 (match) · 62 history records