Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe2a5…51b4 other 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$206 (-1%) realized +$193 · open −$399
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 34L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$5,612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$390
7 days+$538
14 days+$429
30 days+$1,634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1,427
crypto 14% −$1,404
politics 13% −$1,849
world 12% +$1,115
tech 8% −$1,070
weather 5% +$3
sports 3% +$955
economics 2% +$653
culture 1% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +37.9% +24.7% 77% 77% +12.1%
≤30d 27 +26.2% +14.1% 70% 70% +16.1%
≤90d 49 +28.4% +16.2% 63% 63% +22.1%
all 70 +3.1% -6.7% 51% 50% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% -8.9%
10% -15.6% 44% -17.6%
15% -23.8% 40% -25.6%
20% -31.2% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$262 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$5,612
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$399
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions37
Markets (closed)70 / 107
History coverage235d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $640 $622 −$18 (-3%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $679 $411 −$268 (-39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $322 $395 +$73 (+23%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $276 $350 +$74 (+27%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $304 $330 +$26 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $344 $273 −$71 (-21%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $191 $183 −$8 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $136 $137 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $138 $135 −$3 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $218 $133 −$85 (-39%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $124 $127 +$3 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $128 $123 −$6 (-4%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $200 $112 −$87 (-44%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $94 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $84 $88 +$4 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 26¢ 26¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $194 +$106 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $231 +$169 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $185 +$115 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $143 −$141 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $97 +$103 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $159 +$91 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$57 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $290 +$210 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $279 −$275 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $230 −$228 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $196 +$188 +96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $250 +$89 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $154 −$152 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $194 +$106 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $292 +$308 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $289 −$285 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $269 −$265 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $390 +$185 +48%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $254 +$166 +65%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 31 $203 +$133 +65%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $340 +$58 +17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $324 +$126 +39%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $312 +$888 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 03 $68 −$65 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 2? May 01 $209 −$200 -96%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 01 $206 +$69 +33%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 28 $618 +$368 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $70 +$623 +890%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 29? Apr 27 $66 −$64 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27? Apr 26 $100 −$95 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 27? Apr 26 $100 −$95 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26? Apr 26 $194 +$73 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $74 +$120 +162%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21? Apr 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 19? Apr 20 $245 +$255 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 18? Apr 18 $207 +$93 +45%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar Apr 17 $61 −$59 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $500 +$537 +107%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Apr 13 $170 +$30 +18%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 13 $400 +$133 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December? Apr 13 $500 +$176 +35%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 13 $400 +$653 +163%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA? Dec 17 $2,000 +$2,300 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 15m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 16m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $89 16m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $82 17m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 17m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 17m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 37m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 26¢ $0 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 26¢ $0 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 26¢ $88 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL No 46¢ $88 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 51¢ $102 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 41¢ $42 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 45¢ $18 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 45¢ $3 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 66¢ $67 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,611.74 · official $5,611.77 (match) · 592 history records