Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2a2…f271 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-40%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$6
crypto 42% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -48.7% -53.6% 25% 25% -53.0%
≤30d 9 -39.8% -45.6% 33% 33% -61.2%
≤90d 9 -39.8% -45.6% 33% 33% -61.2%
all 9 -39.8% -45.6% 33% 33% -61.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 33% -61.2%
10% -50.8% 22% -64.9%
15% -55.5% 11% -68.3%
20% -59.9% 11% -71.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +112%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 40m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 58m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.54 · official $3.54 (match) · 15 history records