Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe29f…cdd8 weather 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$361 (+9%) realized +$376 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%64W / 140L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day82.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$112
14 days+$256
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +20.5% +9.0% 32% 27% -5.4%
≤30d 204 +12.7% +2.0% 31% 26% -3.3%
≤90d 204 +12.7% +2.0% 31% 26% -3.3%
all 204 +12.7% +2.0% 31% 26% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 26% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 20% -12.6%
15% -16.7% 18% -21.0%
20% -24.9% 15% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses64 / 140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage9d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day82.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 −$16 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$10 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$13 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $76 −$9 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$23 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $87 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$6 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$7 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$28 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1010%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$116 +554%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$105 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 +$8 +3583%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +340%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$8 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $123 −$36 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$46 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$11 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $184 −$89 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $123 +$18 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$19 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 52m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 41¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 52¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 62¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 774 history records