Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe29f…378f crypto 754 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,005 (-142%) realized −$2,005 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%350W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 55% -9.4%
≤30d 681 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 46% -21.1%
≤90d 754 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 46% -19.4%
all 754 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 46% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 46% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 44% -27.1%
15% -33.8% 39% -34.1%
20% -40.3% 32% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,005
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses350 / 404
Open positions0
Markets (closed)754 / 754
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 754 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records