Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe29e…76e0 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$243 (+30%) realized +$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$204
sports 19% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+58.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +74.7% +58.1% 73% 73% +28.6%
≤30d 15 +74.7% +58.1% 73% 73% +28.6%
≤90d 15 +74.7% +58.1% 73% 73% +28.6%
all 15 +74.7% +58.1% 73% 73% +28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.1% 73% +28.6%
10% +42.9% 67% +16.3%
15% +29.1% 60% +5.1%
20% +16.5% 47% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +118% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$5 · ×7.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.48 per $1 lost it wins $19.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage34d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $260 +$103 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$9 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$24 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $17 +$11 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$38 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 −$2 -8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$50 +246%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$31 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +279%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 −$5 -70%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $260 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $17 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $244 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $8 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 9h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 16¢ $3 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $17 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 50¢ $18 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $19 27h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Over 12¢ $2 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 39h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 39h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records