Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe29d…1f2b crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$26
economics 3% $0
other 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.7% -13.7% 38% 31% -12.6%
≤30d 13 -4.7% -13.7% 38% 31% -12.6%
≤90d 13 -4.7% -13.7% 38% 31% -12.6%
all 13 -4.7% -13.7% 38% 31% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 31% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 23% -21.0%
15% -29.5% 15% -28.6%
20% -36.4% 15% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $114 −$36 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $138 −$21 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $91 −$24 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.09 · official $26.09 (match) · 89 history records