Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe29c…4025 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1
other 20% +$2
politics 18% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 0% -9.1%
all 35 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.56 per $1 lost it wins $7.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage296d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $6 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 -14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $37 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 7h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $40 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $41 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $41 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.40 · official $37.31 · 215 history records