Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe297…3c4c other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$101 (+11%) realized +$102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$61
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$76
sports 10% −$7
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -34.2% -40.5% 38% 38% -1.0%
≤30d 17 -31.7% -38.2% 41% 35% -1.0%
≤90d 17 -31.7% -38.2% 41% 35% -1.0%
all 17 -31.7% -38.2% 41% 35% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 35% -1.0%
10% -44.1% 24% -10.5%
15% -49.5% 18% -19.1%
20% -54.5% 12% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$16 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $23 +$55 +236%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $116 +$23 +20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$35 +97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $121 +$59 +49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $90 +$31 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $210 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $116 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $121 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.65 · official $198.65 (match) · 35 history records