trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $92 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $16 | +$1 | +4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| US military action against Iran before April? | Mar 31 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? | Mar 16 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 67% | 0% | -10.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 67% | 0% | -10.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 67% | 0% | -10.6% |
| all | 14 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 79% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -33.4% |