Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe294…d74b other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized −$5 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$50
sports 3% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.3% -25.2% 60% 40% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -17.3% -25.2% 60% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -17.3% -25.2% 60% 40% -9.5%
all 10 -17.3% -25.2% 60% 40% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 40% -9.5%
10% -32.4% 20% -18.2%
15% -38.9% 10% -26.1%
20% -44.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $90 $81 −$9 (-10%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 85¢ 86¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vasco Esports 68¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs shimmer 64¢ 60¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $70 −$2 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $91 +$19 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $140 +$7 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$42 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $70 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 93¢ $68 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 68¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY shimmer 64¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $109 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $45 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $91 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 95¢ $70 41h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 41h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $100 41h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $60 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.76 · official $476.48 (match) · 34 history records