Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E2 0xe28f…a34f crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$4
other 29% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 62% -6.9%
≤30d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 62% -6.9%
≤90d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 62% -6.9%
all 8 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 62% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 62% -6.9%
10% -21.2% 50% -15.8%
15% -28.8% 25% -23.9%
20% -35.8% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.39 · official $89.39 (match) · 21 history records