Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe28e…ac9f sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$729 (+6%) realized +$729 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%49W / 49L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$1,101
other 14% −$332
crypto 9% +$1
finance 3% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.8% -30.2% 75% 0% -32.7%
≤30d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 69% 0% -15.8%
≤90d 67 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 1% -53.0%
all 98 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 23% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 23% -4.1%
10% -19.2% 21% -13.3%
15% -27.0% 17% -21.7%
20% -34.1% 14% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$47 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$729
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses49 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage167d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $57 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $34 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $57 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 29 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $41 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 16 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 16 $28 −$5 -19%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 16 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $30 −$12 -42%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $30 −$5 -16%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $8 −$1 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $17 −$3 -20%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $11 $0 -4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $725 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 27 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 27 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Apr 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Apr 27 $65 −$18 -28%
Rams vs. Seahawks Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Heat vs. Rockets Apr 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Apr 27 $122 −$122 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Clippers vs. Pacers Apr 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Apr 27 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Apr 27 $280 −$280 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 58¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $23 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $11 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $28 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 459 history records