Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe28d…7794 crypto 317 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$253 (-11%) realized −$253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%135W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$61
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$352
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -7.4% -16.2% 76% 47% -14.9%
≤30d 294 -19.7% -27.3% 45% 31% -22.2%
≤90d 317 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 30% -23.3%
all 317 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 30% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 30% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 18% -30.7%
15% -42.0% 13% -37.4%
20% -47.7% 9% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses135 / 182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)317 / 317
History coverage32d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 317 Trades
no open positions (120 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$3 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$3 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $24 −$16 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$10 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 876 history records