trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 11 | $780 | −$20 | -3% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? | Jun 05 | $115 | −$72 | -63% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $87 | +$783 | +900% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | Mar 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 13 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 06 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? | Mar 03 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iran strike UAE in March? | Mar 03 | $2 | $0 | -29% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet | Mar 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $38 | +$31 | +82% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? | Feb 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 5? | Feb 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 30 | $222 | −$190 | -86% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $50 | −$49 | -97% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 21 | $106 | −$59 | -56% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 16 | $100 | −$3 | -3% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Jan 16 | $60 | +$19 | +32% |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | Jan 16 | $44 | +$5 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 0% | 0% | -11.9% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +265.8% | +231.0% | 33% | 33% | +68.1% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +119.5% | +98.6% | 20% | 20% | +65.3% |
| all | 23 | -21.4% | -28.9% | 17% | 17% | +19.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.9% | 17% | +19.6% |
| 10% | -35.7% | 13% | +8.1% |
| 15% | -41.9% | 9% | -2.3% |
| 20% | -47.6% | 9% | -11.9% |