Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe286…969c other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-15%) realized −$119 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$65
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$96
sports 20% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 45% -20.7%
≤30d 34 -5.7% -14.7% 41% 41% -21.8%
≤90d 34 -5.7% -14.7% 41% 41% -21.8%
all 34 -5.7% -14.7% 41% 41% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 41% -21.8%
10% -22.9% 41% -29.2%
15% -30.3% 41% -36.1%
20% -37.1% 35% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+31%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +36%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +234%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +272%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$22 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $5 14m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 32h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $16 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.66 · official $83.66 (match) · 56 history records