Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe283…8477 other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 144L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$28
14 days−$36
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$19
politics 27% −$35
sports 17% −$18
crypto 6% −$7
culture 5% −$6
world 5% +$1
economics 4% −$6
finance 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 70 -0.8% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 156 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 171 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage100d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $308 −$5 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $235 −$4 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $52 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $348 −$6 -2%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 12 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $60 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $245 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $108 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $98 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $105 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $538 −$3 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $125 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $52 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $51 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $51 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 14h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 21h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 22h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 29h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $32 29h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $24 36h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $9 36h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $59 37h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $60 41h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $24 42h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $11 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $58 3d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $59 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $49 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.09 · official $45.09 (match) · 699 history records