Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe283…7190 sports 1001 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,199 (-1%) realized −$3,583 · open +$384
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%465W / 525L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$2,352est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7,834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,425
other 3% +$1,336
crypto 0% +$640
world 0% −$550
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤30d 220 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 48% -2.8%
≤90d 585 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 47% -5.8%
all 990 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 46% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 46% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 43% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 38% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$252 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$7,834
Realized−$3,583
Unrealized+$384
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses465 / 525
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,352
Open positions11
Markets (closed)990 / 1001
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$289
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 990 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $1,925 $1,661 −$264 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 39¢ 38¢ $1,500 $1,486 −$14 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 61¢ 64¢ $1,000 $1,041 +$41 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $600 $1,011 +$411 (+68%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 34¢ 99¢ $250 $730 +$480 (+192%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 96¢ $350 $542 +$192 (+55%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 100¢ $200 $540 +$340 (+170%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 36¢ 38¢ $500 $521 +$21 (+4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 52¢ $275 $257 −$17 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Spirit 34¢ 0¢ $800 $1 −$799 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 304 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,588 +$955 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $981 +$183 +19%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $254 −$250 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $303 −$300 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $406 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $358 −$350 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,572 +$1,350 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,514 +$694 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $246 −$240 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $346 −$340 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $306 +$528 +172%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,046 −$1,030 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $285 +$382 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $269 +$241 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $607 +$410 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $245 +$482 +197%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $899 −$880 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $179 −$175 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 +$68 +140%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $253 +$195 +77%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $71 +$61 +86%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $132 +$103 +78%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $158 +$261 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $253 +$164 +65%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $406 +$367 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,318 +$1,135 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $303 +$139 +46%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,524 +$2,486 +163%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $28 +$85 +300%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,377 +$819 +60%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $765 +$1,362 +178%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $305 +$308 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $608 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,122 −$2,105 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $509 8m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $1,018 10m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Spirit 34¢ $306 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Spirit 34¢ $510 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $354 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $255 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $607 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $2,543 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $1,012 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 72¢ $151 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $152 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $273 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $1,011 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $305 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $279 17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $510 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $102 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $101 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $101 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $70 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $101 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $254 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,834.40 · official $7,834.40 (match) · 3500 history records