Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe281…c805 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$3
other 16% $0
politics 11% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 8% -9.2%
all 33 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage273d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 55¢ $36 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 −$2 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $84 −$2 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $30 +$4 +15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $18 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $27 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 30 $74 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $6 $0 -5%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $32 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $48 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $46 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $4 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $14 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $5 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $38 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $32 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $13 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.30 · official $36.30 (match) · 136 history records