Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe27f…101d world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$5
politics 18% −$30
other 18% −$7
sports 15% +$3
tech 3% +$1
finance 2% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 38 -2.8% -12.0% 37% 0% -10.7%
all 53 -4.9% -13.9% 40% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 4% -10.8%
10% -22.2% 4% -19.3%
15% -29.7% 4% -27.1%
20% -36.6% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage522d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $71 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $23 −$1 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $41 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $33 +$3 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $45 −$2 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $17 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $35 −$3 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $35 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $36 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $29 −$3 -9%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $146 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $159 −$18 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $255 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $292 −$12 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $266 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Mar 20 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhau Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Western Michigan vs. Akron Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Feb 05 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $10 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $3 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $37 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $21 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $23 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.48 · official $37.46 (match) · 187 history records