Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe27c…5da2 weather 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$529 (-13%) realized −$529 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$405
7 days−$635
14 days−$625
30 days−$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$350
sports 22% −$272
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -26.2% -33.2% 37% 30% -26.7%
≤30d 38 -20.6% -28.1% 39% 34% -24.0%
≤90d 38 -20.6% -28.1% 39% 34% -24.0%
all 38 -20.6% -28.1% 39% 34% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 34% -24.0%
10% -35.0% 26% -31.3%
15% -41.3% 26% -37.9%
20% -47.1% 24% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$61 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$529
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage8d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $133 +$74 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$73 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 19 $553 −$552 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $380 +$169 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$17 -83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$6 +84%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $23 −$16 -68%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $213 +$21 +10%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $41 −$41 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $355 +$59 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $287 −$157 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $283 +$51 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $357 −$318 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$19 -61%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$39 +132%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$20 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $306 +$59 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$105 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$12 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $101 −$73 -72%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$20 +99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$71 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 63¢ $132 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $43 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 72¢ $57 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $337 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $158 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $548 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $162 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $204 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $10 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $13 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $7 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 53¢ $7 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $234 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.33 · official $10.33 (match) · 116 history records