Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe278…8d21 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$281 (+5%) realized +$282 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%42W / 4L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$5
culture 26% −$8
crypto 14% −$8
finance 5% +$300
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 42 -2.4% -11.7% 93% 0% -9.9%
all 46 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 2% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -5.4%
10% -18.1% 2% -14.5%
15% -26.0% 2% -22.7%
20% -33.3% 2% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×14.07 per $1 lost it wins $14.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$282
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses42 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage141d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,446 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 23? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20? May 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 19? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 18? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $54 −$8 -14%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 12 $289 +$300 +104%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $1,564 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jan 26 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,442 21h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,446 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $11 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.14 · official $43.15 (match) · 99 history records