Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe278…b1c0 other 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$23
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$31
sports 23% −$17
politics 7% −$5
economics 7% −$4
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage126d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $208 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $329 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $791 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $547 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $444 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $399 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $319 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $404 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $422 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 02 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $581 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $226 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $146 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $413 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 21m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 4h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 19h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 20h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 24h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 25h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 31h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 32h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 34h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 36h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 37h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 38h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 40h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 42h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1245 history records