Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe276…ea5c sports 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,803 (+7%) realized +$2,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate76%58W / 18L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$509per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$339
7 days−$836
14 days+$694
30 days+$931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,119
tech 26% +$936
other 19% +$412
crypto 1% −$47
economics 1% +$19
politics 1% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 69% 62% -27.5%
≤30d 36 +5.6% -4.5% 83% 64% -5.6%
≤90d 38 +3.5% -6.3% 82% 63% -3.5%
all 76 +8.2% -2.1% 76% 57% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 57% -3.2%
10% -11.5% 30% -12.5%
15% -20.0% 18% -21.0%
20% -27.9% 14% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$261 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses58 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage250d
Avg bet$509
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$5 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $128 +$72 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $493 +$119 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $113 +$13 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $590 −$477 -81%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $296 +$192 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $201 −$201 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $266 −$263 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $274 +$192 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $106 +$21 +19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $257 −$256 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $209 +$48 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $614 +$90 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $450 −$448 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $215 +$24 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $490 +$54 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $392 +$48 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $393 +$49 +12%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $723 +$66 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10,036 +$936 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $302 +$27 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $301 +$15 +5%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $201 +$43 +22%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $723 +$57 +8%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $420 +$29 +7%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $402 +$63 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $289 −$54 -19%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $138 +$27 +20%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $301 +$58 +19%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $198 +$64 +32%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $498 +$80 +16%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $699 +$97 +14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $11 −$10 -94%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $1,987 +$654 +33%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $2,283 +$1,371 +60%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $1,029 +$256 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $1,905 −$1,905 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 19 $1,508 +$229 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $500 +$109 +22%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $380 +$120 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $500 +$42 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $841 −$2 -0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $489 +$353 +72%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 14 $341 +$49 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 08 $249 +$92 +37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $207 +$42 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $106 29m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 84¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $612 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $128 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 80¢ $493 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $113 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $113 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $103 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $488 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $488 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $296 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $64 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $201 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $202 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $467 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $274 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $127 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $148 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $106 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $257 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $257 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $209 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $209 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $168 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records