Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe275…f1ee other 137 markets active 4h ago coverage 1208d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,180 (-2%) realized −$14,688 · open −$492
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate63%84W / 50L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,307per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$663est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$3,541
14 days+$6,243
30 days+$6,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$5,255
world 26% −$30,966
crypto 11% +$5,522
tech 8% +$702
politics 7% −$254
sports 7% $0
economics 6% +$11,113
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.9% -28.4% 39% 39% -2.3%
≤30d 26 -25.4% -32.5% 38% 38% -0.9%
≤90d 26 -25.4% -32.5% 38% 38% -0.9%
all 134 -5.6% -14.6% 63% 31% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 31% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 24% -19.1%
15% -30.3% 19% -26.9%
20% -37.1% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$6,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,195 vs −$2,170 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1208d coverage
Net worth$1,519
Realized−$14,688
Unrealized−$492
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses84 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$663
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 137
History coverage1208d
Avg bet$5,307
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $971 −$29 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $537 −$463 (-46%)
Will Serena Williams Play at Wimbledon 2026? No $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $3,049 +$3,072 +101%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $2,843 −$2,800 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,438 −$1,184 -49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $195 −$29 -15%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $3,489 +$2,804 +80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,546 +$2,141 +39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,029 −$413 -14%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $4,054 +$1,158 +29%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,023 +$1,255 +62%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,525 −$1,500 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,422 −$2,400 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $6,268 +$4,965 +79%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,020 −$1,299 -64%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,016 −$954 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,978 +$4,558 +76%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $919 −$900 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,306 −$1,292 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,017 +$709 +70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,044 −$3,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6,836 +$4,645 +68%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $10,000 +$753 +8%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $9,797 −$5,459 -56%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 19 $1,000 −$786 -79%
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $500 +$77 +16%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $500 +$98 +20%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? Jan 01 $1,000 +$28 +3%
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $2,000 +$18 +1%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 01 $10,000 +$1,034 +10%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $9,000 +$606 +7%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 01 $17,400 +$3,214 +18%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $26,000 −$118 -0%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Dec 29 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Dec 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 26 $20,000 +$131 +1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22? Dec 25 $1,000 +$3 +0%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 23 $14,999 +$344 +2%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Dec 22 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $10,000 +$1,236 +12%
Lakers vs. Jazz Dec 19 $1,000 +$299 +30%
Magic vs. Nuggets Dec 19 $1,000 +$408 +41%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $2,500 +$625 +25%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 09 $2,100 −$286 -14%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $7,000 +$971 +14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%? Dec 03 $10,000 +$17 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $510 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 93¢ $928 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $1,097 6h
Will Serena Williams Play at Wimbledon 2026? BUY No $10 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $1,427 6h
Will Serena Williams Play at Wimbledon 2026? BUY No $1 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $3,049 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $305 30h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $508 30h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 23¢ $298 30h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 23¢ $301 30h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 25¢ $655 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 29¢ $409 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $2,030 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $166 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $195 31h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $2,031 33h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $3,500 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,687 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 96¢ $459 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 91¢ $9 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $993 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $1,332 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 38¢ $509 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $957 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 63¢ $2,022 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $4,534 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $2,616 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,518.78 · official $1,518.78 (match) · 702 history records