Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe275…86dd other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%18W / 219L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$33
sports 26% −$21
politics 9% −$10
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses18 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage136d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $352 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $383 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $997 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $515 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $596 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $583 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $587 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $160 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $364 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $508 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $237 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $371 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $439 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $281 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $70 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 3h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $30 14h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $30 16h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $70 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $71 18h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $71 20h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $71 21h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $71 21h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $71 25h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $71 33h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $71 34h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $71 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $71 40h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $71 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $71 43h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $71 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $71 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $71 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $71 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $71 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $72 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $72 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.13 · official $70.13 (match) · 1376 history records