Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E2 0xe275…a114 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$386 (-2%) realized −$384 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%54W / 21L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$842
other 2% +$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -31.1% -37.7% 33% 33% -39.5%
≤90d 75 -2.6% -11.9% 72% 49% -12.5%
all 75 -2.6% -11.9% 72% 49% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 49% -12.5%
10% -20.3% 17% -20.9%
15% -28.0% 12% -28.5%
20% -35.1% 8% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$152 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$384
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses54 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage75d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $844 −$844 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $744 +$107 +14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $829 −$64 -8%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 May 16 $36 +$13 +35%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 May 15 $12 +$9 +74%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $271 −$271 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $261 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Haunted House (BO3) - Asian Champions L May 12 $252 +$9 +4%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 12 $208 +$48 +23%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $193 +$13 +7%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 11 $200 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner May 11 $161 +$19 +12%
LoL: Ei Nerd Esports vs Estral Esports - Game 3 Winner May 11 $135 +$29 +22%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winner May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 11 $116 +$17 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $84 +$16 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $65 +$23 +36%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $147 −$33 -23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $73 +$26 +36%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $40 +$36 +90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 11 $68 −$28 -42%
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group May 10 $254 −$191 -75%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $109 +$153 +140%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $4 $0 -7%
Dota 2: enjoy boys vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner May 06 $527 −$527 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 2 Winner May 05 $502 +$24 +5%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner May 05 $479 +$23 +5%
LoL: eSuba vs Onion Team - Game 2 Winner May 05 $465 +$12 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 05 $453 +$15 +3%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner May 04 $397 +$55 +14%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $379 +$18 +5%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner May 04 $129 +$6 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 04 $342 +$32 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 04 $332 +$13 +4%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challen May 04 $294 +$32 +11%
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 03 $162 +$129 +79%
Valorant: Mandatory vs F9 EICAR - Map 2 Winner May 03 $13 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group May 03 $146 +$21 +15%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner May 03 $135 +$13 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $137 −$4 -3%
Valorant: Misa Esports vs FUT Academy - Map 2 Winner May 03 $342 −$204 -60%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 03 $304 +$41 +13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 03 $281 +$14 +5%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner May 03 $254 +$33 +13%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 03 $226 +$30 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $255 1h
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $844 22d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $851 22d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $6 22d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $738 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 56¢ $765 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $823 24d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S BUY Ursa 69¢ $31 34d
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $17 37d
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 48¢ $17 37d
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $19 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 SELL Over 51¢ $19 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 37d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $12 38d
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) BUY Real Betis Balompié 37¢ $3 40d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 89¢ $225 40d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 89¢ $8 40d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 89¢ $8 40d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 89¢ $9 40d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 89¢ $4 40d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 89¢ $9 40d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 89¢ $8 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $274 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $78 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $2 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $3 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $38 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $16 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $3 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.13 · official $240.67 · 249 history records