Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe272…a28a crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$127 (-2%) realized −$122 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate48%44W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 37% +$97
crypto 33% −$271
politics 11% +$65
other 11% −$120
sports 5% +$145
world 2% +$1
finance 1% −$98
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.7% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 2 +3.7% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤90d 5 -18.0% -25.8% 80% 0% -12.9%
all 91 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 23% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 23% -11.2%
10% -14.1% 14% -19.7%
15% -22.4% 13% -27.5%
20% -30.0% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses44 / 47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage655d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 74¢ $125 $121 −$4 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 26 $105 +$6 +6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 16 $49 −$98 -200%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 14 $384 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 04 $260 −$33 -13%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $869 +$15 +2%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Jan 20 $392 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $214 +$36 +17%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 31 $160 +$12 +8%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $350 +$6 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 20 $200 +$25 +13%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 19 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $220 +$15 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $240 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19? Oct 22 $239 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 10? Oct 11 $239 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 9? Oct 10 $230 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $206 +$17 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Sep 04 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 04 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30? Aug 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 1? Aug 02 $1 +$17 +1150%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 1? Aug 02 $5 +$45 +900%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Jul 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by July 31? Jul 28 $3 −$1 -38%
Ethereum above $3,600 on July 25? Jul 26 $50 +$20 +41%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jul 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $2 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 22 $5 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down in May? Jun 14 $47 +$10 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 05 $115 +$2 +2%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Onta Mar 01 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana above $260 on January 31? Feb 01 $26 +$4 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 1? Jan 28 $5 −$1 -17%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? Jan 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000.00 by March 31? Jan 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 18 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 18 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jan 11 $5 $0 -2%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 11 $50 +$7 +14%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 08 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $50 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $126 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $100 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $105 35d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $193 60d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $0 60d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $2 60d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $3 60d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $15 60d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $6 60d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $2 60d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $220 74d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $393 76d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $25 94d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $23 94d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $240 94d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $0 94d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $96 94d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 70¢ $49 95d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 61¢ $50 145d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 61¢ $176 145d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 148d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 148d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $117 149d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 149d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $400 160d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 97¢ $219 160d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.26 · official $170.26 (match) · 271 history records