trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Marcus Thuram be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will the Champions League Final be decided in a penalty shoot-out? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $0 | −$16 (-100%) |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Champions League Final: 3+ goals? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Inter Milan beat PSG in the first half? | Mar 31 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will PSG win 4-0? | Mar 31 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Chelsea vs. PSG end in a draw? | Mar 31 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Mar 31 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | May 20 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will the Champions League Final be decided in a penalty shoot-out? | May 20 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Champions League Final: 3+ goals? | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Marcus Thuram be named the Champions League Final man of the matc | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | May 19 | $95 | +$103 | +108% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? | BUY Yes | 22¢ | $10 | 1h |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY Yes | 58¢ | $20 | 153d |
| Will Chelsea vs. PSG end in a draw? | BUY Yes | 27¢ | $20 | 335d |
| Will PSG win 4-0? | BUY Yes | 50¢ | $5 | 335d |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY Yes | 41¢ | $50 | 389d |
| Will the Champions League Final be decided in a penalty shoot-out? | BUY Yes | 16¢ | $16 | 389d |
| Champions League Final: 3+ goals? | BUY No | 47¢ | $10 | 389d |
| Will Marcus Thuram be named the Champions League Final man of the matc | BUY Yes | 12¢ | $10 | 389d |
| Will Inter Milan beat PSG in the first half? | BUY Yes | 26¢ | $20 | 389d |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | BUY Yes | 48¢ | $95 | 394d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 9 | -76.9% | -79.1% | 11% | 11% | -27.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -79.1% | 11% | -27.2% |
| 10% | -81.1% | 11% | -34.2% |
| 15% | -82.9% | 11% | -40.5% |
| 20% | -84.6% | 11% | -46.4% |