Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe271…0f71 crypto 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-5%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%121W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day56.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$18
sports 8% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -2.0% -11.3% 63% 62% -14.2%
≤30d 192 -2.0% -11.3% 63% 62% -14.2%
≤90d 192 -2.0% -11.3% 63% 62% -14.2%
all 192 -2.0% -11.3% 63% 62% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 62% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 61% -22.4%
15% -27.5% 56% -29.9%
20% -34.6% 42% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses121 / 71
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day56.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 59¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.45 · official $4.19 (match) · 342 history records