Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe270…eab5 sports 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (836 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+0%) realized +$572 · open −$505
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%57W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day836.0pace
Fees−$306est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$328
other 8% −$196
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (836 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 48% -9.1%
≤30d 111 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 48% -9.1%
≤90d 111 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 48% -9.1%
all 111 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 48% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover836.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 48% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 35% -17.8%
15% -36.4% 19% -25.7%
20% -42.7% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$50 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$958
Realized+$572
Unrealized−$505
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses57 / 54
Est. fees paid−$306
Open positions24
Markets (closed)111 / 135
History coverage2d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day836.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Under 60¢ 66¢ $199 $219 +$20 (+10%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Under 46¢ 28¢ $296 $182 −$114 (-38%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 52¢ 92¢ $83 $145 +$62 (+75%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $113 $111 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $101 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Under 24¢ 64¢ $23 $61 +$38 (+164%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 16¢ 16¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Under 83¢ 89¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Under 16¢ 0¢ $183 $1 −$183 (-100%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $177 +$39 +22%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $71 +$6 +8%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $634 +$267 +42%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $402 +$170 +42%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $166 −$24 -14%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $197 +$66 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $120 +$21 +17%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $147 +$41 +28%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $70 +$13 +18%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $317 −$77 -24%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $89 +$55 +61%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $303 −$198 -65%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $56 −$25 -44%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $329 −$287 -87%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $86 +$13 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $24 −$23 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $15 +$5 +32%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $355 +$260 +73%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $339 +$109 +32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $553 +$123 +22%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $169 +$34 +20%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $80 −$71 -88%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $143 −$73 -51%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $221 +$20 +9%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $115 +$32 +28%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $108 +$31 +28%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $39 −$20 -50%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 −$7 -13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $49 −$20 -41%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $52 +$112 +214%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $33 +$67 +202%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $44 +$6 +15%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $243 +$43 +18%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $95 +$24 +26%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $245 +$60 +24%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $203 +$88 +44%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $554 +$91 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$42 +70%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $53 +$20 +37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $216 −$122 -57%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $27 −$23 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 31¢ $2 1m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 31¢ $5 1m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 2m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 93¢ $7 2m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 67¢ $23 3m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 93¢ $4 3m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 15¢ $2 4m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $47 4m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 64¢ $7 5m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $40 6m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $4 6m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 16¢ $4 7m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $17 9m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $9 9m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 17¢ $7 9m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $3 9m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 62¢ $6 9m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $38 10m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $24 11m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $19 11m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 61¢ $5 11m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $1 12m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $0 12m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $7 13m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $16 13m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $59 15m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $20 15m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $12 15m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $20 15m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 83¢ $8 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $958.06 · official $958.16 (match) · 2030 history records