trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 50% | 10% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 50% | 10% | -9.3% |
| all | 29 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 45% | 3% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.1% | 3% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 3% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -36.7% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 85¢ | $26 | $26 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $41 | +$2 | +4% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $73 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 29 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 28 | $42 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 28 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 18 | $17 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 31 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? | Mar 31 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? | Mar 31 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 30 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$1 | -53% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -44% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? | Mar 24 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | Mar 20 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 13 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 12 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? | Mar 11 | $18 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? | Mar 07 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | +0% |