Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe26f…ae81 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-66%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$41
crypto 8% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
≤30d 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
≤90d 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
all 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 38% -65.7%
10% -52.9% 38% -69.0%
15% -57.5% 25% -72.0%
20% -61.6% 25% -74.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records