Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe26e…036b other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,082 (+7%) realized +$2,482 · open −$400
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%33W / 21L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$827
14 days+$827
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,663
world 37% −$380
politics 5% +$274
finance 0% −$55
tech 0% +$25
weather 0% −$80
economics 0% +$55
sports 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.6% +33.6% 100% 100% +33.6%
≤30d 5 -47.9% -52.9% 40% 40% -4.1%
≤90d 21 -13.6% -21.8% 62% 33% -0.4%
all 54 -9.5% -18.1% 61% 44% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 44% -2.8%
10% -25.9% 30% -12.1%
15% -33.1% 24% -20.6%
20% -39.7% 17% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$142 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$3,115
Realized+$2,482
Unrealized−$400
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses33 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage124d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2,999 $2,653 −$346 (-12%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 92¢ 85¢ $462 $424 −$38 (-8%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 52¢ 36¢ $53 $37 −$16 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,736 +$827 +48%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3,816 +$490 +13%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $336 −$336 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $301 −$296 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $298 −$295 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1,034 +$439 +42%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 23 $2,805 +$181 +6%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $205 +$336 +164%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $307 +$392 +128%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,908 +$166 +9%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1,808 +$111 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 01 $1,500 +$31 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 01 $51 −$48 -95%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 27 $1,700 +$68 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1,200 +$501 +42%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $1,339 +$22 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $900 +$441 +49%
Will Trump say "Jesus" during National Agriculture Day events? Mar 27 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Mar 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Biden" during National Agriculture Day events? Mar 27 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Mar 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Will "Jamie" be said 3+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Mar 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Ayatollah" during trophy presentation? Mar 20 $80 +$7 +8%
Will Trump say "Toyota" during events with Japanese PM? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Hiroshima" or "Nagasaki" during events with Japanese P Mar 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Trump say "Emperor" or 'King" during events with Japanese PM? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "US Steel" during events with Japanese PM? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press confer Mar 18 $53 +$55 +103%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 15? Mar 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Mar 13 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" or "Midnight Hammer" during Women's History Mar 12 $40 +$34 +84%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 11 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 10 $728 +$165 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 10 $100 −$55 -55%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during Miami address? Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $50 +$30 +60%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $700 +$218 +31%
Will "Jamie" be said 3+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Mar 03 $45 +$6 +13%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$281 +141%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Feb 25 $100 +$25 +25%
Will "Addiction" or "Drug" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience e Feb 25 $200 +$36 +18%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 52¢ $54 1h
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 23h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,999 23h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,444 32h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1,000 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,563 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,736 5d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $1,735 19d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $1,652 20d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $50 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $7 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $6 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $10 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $3 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $11 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $4 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $2 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $10 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $16 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $11 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $4 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 62¢ $52 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $59 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $4 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $2 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $4 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $6 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $4 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $2 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 75¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,114.67 · official $3,114.67 (match) · 264 history records