Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E2 0xe26a…862e world 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$2
sports 8% −$8
other 3% $0
politics 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 5 +8.2% -2.1% 80% 20% -8.1%
≤90d 5 +8.2% -2.1% 80% 20% -8.1%
all 13 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 15% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 15% -12.2%
10% -19.9% 15% -20.6%
15% -27.6% 15% -28.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage485d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 +$1 +37%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Mar 23 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? Feb 24 $1 $0 -12%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Feb 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $3 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $39 1m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $38 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $3 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $7 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $33 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 25d
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 94¢ $1 357d
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? BUY No 99¢ $2 389d
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? BUY No 98¢ $1 420d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 434d
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 452d
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 452d
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 478d
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 478d
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 478d
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 479d
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 482d
Gonzaga vs. Washington State BUY Washington State 11¢ $1 484d
Gonzaga vs. Washington State BUY Washington State 11¢ $1 484d
Gonzaga vs. Washington State BUY Washington State 11¢ $1 484d
Gonzaga vs. Washington State BUY Washington State 11¢ $1 484d
Gonzaga vs. Washington State BUY Washington State 11¢ $1 484d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records