Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe261…ca64 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$9
sports 26% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -14.4%
≤30d 8 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -14.4%
≤90d 8 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -14.4%
all 8 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 50% -14.4%
10% -39.7% 50% -22.6%
15% -45.5% 25% -30.1%
20% -50.9% 12% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $61 $72 +$11 (+18%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 79¢ 84¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 +$12 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$45 -89%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$18 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$18 -86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $45 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $73 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 15¢ $10 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 10d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.66 · official $103.66 (match) · 27 history records