Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe25f…211c crypto 1026 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%692W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$12
weather 2% −$5
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +15.0% +4.1% 54% 51% -7.7%
≤30d 298 +3.4% -6.5% 59% 55% -9.6%
≤90d 1026 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 61% -11.6%
all 1026 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 61% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 61% -11.6%
10% -19.5% 44% -20.1%
15% -27.3% 24% -27.8%
20% -34.4% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses692 / 334
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1026 / 1026
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1026 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.51 (match) · 3500 history records