Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe25e…0aa5 sports 305 markets active 202d ago coverage 498d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58,367 (+13%) realized +$58,367 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%168W / 137L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,422per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$51,873
crypto 20% +$13,819
sports 11% −$3,425
other 9% −$3,637
economics 0% +$15
finance 0% −$630
world 0% +$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 305 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 44% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 44% +2.6%
10% -16.0% 41% -7.2%
15% -24.1% 36% -16.1%
20% -31.5% 32% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$915) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$706 vs −$439 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

498d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58,367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses168 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage498d
Avg bet$1,422
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Nov 25 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Nov 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Nov 25 $170 +$28 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Nov 24 $156 +$42 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Nov 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 24 $148 −$148 -100%
Phillies vs. Rangers Nov 24 $211 −$211 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Nov 24 $270 −$270 -100%
Rangers vs. Angels Nov 24 $270 −$270 -100%
Braves vs. Reds Nov 24 $354 −$354 -100%
Reds vs. Angels Nov 24 $288 −$288 -100%
Rockies vs. Pirates Nov 24 $228 −$228 -100%
Rockies vs. Guardians Nov 24 $222 −$222 -100%
Mariners vs. Athletics Nov 24 $282 −$282 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Marlins Nov 24 $252 −$252 -100%
Royals vs. Tigers Nov 24 $276 −$276 -100%
Brewers vs. Cubs Nov 24 $312 −$312 -100%
Rays vs. Angels Nov 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Red Sox vs. Padres Nov 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Chargers vs. Lions Nov 24 $575 −$575 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 American League Championship? Nov 24 $195 −$185 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Nov 24 $291 −$285 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Nov 24 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Nov 24 $146 +$52 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4PM ET Nov 24 $82 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 24 $87 +$27 +31%
Browns vs. Raiders Nov 24 $932 +$9 +1%
Seahawks vs. Titans Nov 23 $915 +$16 +2%
BYU vs. Cincinnati Nov 23 $898 +$18 +2%
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech Nov 23 $835 +$62 +7%
Rutgers vs. Ohio State Nov 23 $831 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $1,824 −$1,200 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $12,533 −$9,644 -77%
Red Sox vs. Yankees: O/U 8.5 Aug 23 $294 +$305 +104%
Mariners vs. Phillies Aug 21 $306 +$294 +96%
Brewers vs. Reds Aug 17 $312 +$288 +92%
Reds vs. Pirates Aug 10 $294 +$306 +104%
Yankees vs. Rangers Aug 05 $304 +$386 +127%
Brewers vs. Braves Aug 05 $381 +$299 +79%
Braves vs. Royals Jul 30 $324 +$276 +85%
Nationals vs. Astros Jul 30 $318 +$282 +89%
Pirates vs. Giants Jul 29 $295 +$305 +104%
Braves vs. Cardinals Jul 14 $360 +$240 +67%
Dodgers vs. Giants Jul 14 $264 −$264 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Angels Jul 14 $324 −$324 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Athletics Jul 14 $276 +$324 +117%
Phillies vs. Padres Jul 14 $324 +$276 +85%
Mets vs. Royals Jul 14 $306 +$294 +96%
Marlins vs. Orioles Jul 14 $258 +$342 +133%
Cubs vs. Yankees Jul 13 $324 −$324 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $4 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $0 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $0 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $0 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $2 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $2 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $0 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $3 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $0 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down $0 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $44 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2588 history records