Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe25c…7908
weather · 150 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9,242 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,612 · open +$414
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,927
Realized−$9,612
Unrealized+$414
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses82 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)169 / 150
History coverage33d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day102.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,235
7 days−$7,309
14 days−$7,469
30 days−$8,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $1,347 $1,565 +$217 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 80¢ 92¢ $593 $682 +$89 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $517 $599 +$83 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? No 91¢ 92¢ $545 $552 +$7 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $289 $328 +$40 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? No 79¢ 100¢ $69 $86 +$18 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 18? No 48¢ 0¢ $229 $0 −$229 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? No 85¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? No 36¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 26? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? No 75¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 23? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? No 16¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23? No 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? No 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 18? Jun 13 $229 −$527 -230%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Jun 13 $19 −$106 -550%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27? Jun 13 $3 −$7 -206%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 26? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19? Jun 13 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 23? Jun 13 $18 −$45 -254%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23? Jun 13 $5 −$97 -2049%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 23? Jun 13 $11 −$167 -1519%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23? Jun 13 $214 −$218 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20? Jun 13 $832 −$832 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24? Jun 13 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22? Jun 13 $75 −$79 -106%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Jun 13 $565 −$565 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23? Jun 13 $60 −$834 -1400%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10? Jun 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 27? Jun 13 $777 −$776 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 29? Jun 13 $184 −$184 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27? Jun 13 $1,730 −$1,959 -113%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or higher on May 7? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20? Jun 13 $92 −$113 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22? Jun 13 $441 −$453 -103%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $107 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$83 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $434 −$48 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,820 +$558 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $758 +$38 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $748 +$62 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $85 −$34 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $209 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 −$27 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $288 +$31 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $329 −$30 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,069 +$40 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $849 +$116 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $552 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $439 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $178 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $135 +$20 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $959 +$182 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $563 −$559 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $460 −$10 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $410 −$139 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $404 −$163 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$799
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $4 1m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 64¢ $19 1m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $47 2m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $11 10m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $45 10m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $17 12m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $69 12m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $18 12m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $38 13m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $35 13m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $45 14m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 50¢ $33 14m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $150 15m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $15 16m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $128 16m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $96 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $108 17m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $8 18m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $20 18m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $12 18m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $31 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $13 21m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 82¢ $59 21m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $13 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -34.1% -40.3% 46% 25% -24.0%
≤30d 145 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 28% -22.2%
≤90d 169 -12.1% -20.4% 49% 28% -21.3%
all 169 -12.1% -20.4% 49% 28% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 28% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 9% -28.8%
15% -35.0% 5% -35.7%
20% -41.4% 5% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,926.82 · official $3,926.82 (match) · 3500 history records