Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe25b…0f1b
world · 97 markets active 19h ago
0.5score
+$567,141 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$655,894 · open −$90,540
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$645,226
Realized+$655,894
Unrealized−$90,540
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses52 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,130
Open positions9
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage86d
Avg bet$84,487
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 9 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$44,531
30 days−$65,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $199,200 $338,042 +$138,842 (+70%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $135,899 $176,086 +$40,187 (+30%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $199,200 $60,358 −$138,842 (-70%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $28,605 $38,446 +$9,841 (+34%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $25,500 $25,050 −$450 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $7,152 $5,745 −$1,407 (-20%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $888 $1,181 +$294 (+33%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 42¢ 46¢ $236 $261 +$25 (+11%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 26¢ $10 $42 +$32 (+334%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Yes 31¢ $236 $16 −$220 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 05 $7,868 −$2,868 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $115,136 −$12,053 -10%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $3,810 +$2,190 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $398,848 +$1,152 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 01 $22 +$18 +85%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $430 +$70 +16%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $31,560 −$31,560 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $117,166 −$46,830 -40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $7,998 +$3,175 +40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $497 −$369 -74%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $19,714 +$2,833 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $41,619 +$5,750 +14%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $7,379 +$2,773 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $10,485 +$515 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $49,380 −$11,855 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $48,500 +$855 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $19,805 +$56 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $36,569 +$103 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $192,929 +$905 +0%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $80 +$572 +715%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2,064 +$1,936 +94%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $45,609 +$16,733 +37%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $1,352 +$693 +51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $4,100 −$200 -5%
LoL: Myth Esports vs The Bandits - Game 1 Winner May 15 $165 +$93 +56%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 14 $56,526 +$5,014 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $31,419 −$3,960 -13%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ch May 13 $808 +$212 +26%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 10 $38,507 +$16,503 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $30,300 −$7,174 -24%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than May 05 $66 −$64 -96%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 May 05 $348 −$306 -88%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 05 $164 +$145 +88%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 May 05 $75 +$361 +482%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t May 05 $449 +$147 +33%
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office May 05 $524 +$1,010 +193%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 02 $663 −$18 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 02 $238 −$238 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 02 $6,597 −$4,406 -67%
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026? May 02 $40 +$10 +25%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $2,991 +$1,797 +60%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $580,254 +$1,746 +0%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? Apr 28 $307 +$196 +64%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m? Apr 28 $1,743 +$19 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $9,255 +$883 +10%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m? Apr 25 $44 +$19 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 48% −$49,433
world 38% −$29,564
other 7% +$667,428
crypto 5% +$1,162
sports 2% −$42,983
culture 1% +$18,743
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $876 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,750 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $50 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $100 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $100 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $200 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $44 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $200 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $52 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $164 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $3,584 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,061 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3,333 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10,624 21h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $640 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $37 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $37 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $186 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $822 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 30 +28.6% +16.3% 67% 43% -14.3%
≤90d 89 +15.3% +4.3% 58% 44% +4.0%
all 89 +15.3% +4.3% 58% 44% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 44% +4.0%
10% -5.7% 39% -5.9%
15% ← realistic here -14.8% 34% -15.0%
20% -23.1% 26% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645,225.61 · official $645,225.61 (match) · 3500 history records