Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe259…57a9
crypto · 48 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses34 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11AM ET Apr 08 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$11
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 5 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 47 -16.6% -24.5% 72% 21% -24.4%
all 47 -16.6% -24.5% 72% 21% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 21% -24.4%
10% -31.7% 9% -31.7%
15% -38.3% 6% -38.3%
20% -44.4% 4% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 108 history records