Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E2 0xe258…0aa8 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 26% $0
politics 21% +$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 8 +250.2% +216.9% 50% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 8 +250.2% +216.9% 50% 12% -9.7%
all 44 +45.4% +31.5% 45% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.5% 2% -9.5%
10% +19.0% 2% -18.1%
15% +7.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -3.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +90% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage315d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $82 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $68 +$3 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 18 $2 $0 -12%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 13 $0 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 11 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 10 $56 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $31 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.15 · official $28.86 (match) · 148 history records